Watching Ohio, PA, and Florida. Looks like Kerry will take PA – but if Florida and Ohio go to Bush, I think Bush takes it. I expected Kerry to win one or both of these. If he wins neither, it would seem to be over (and my prediction wrong.) My hunch was that the independents/undecideds were going to break for Kerry, and that Kerry had enough momentum in Florida to win. Combined with the number of new voters, etc. etc. things seemed to be lined up for Kerry. I spoke late this afternoon to a Kerry insider who had them +2 in Florida. However, tonight’s indications are that may not be materializing … it’s certainly not evident in the numbers at the moment. But, the night is young and this is a bigtime squeaker.

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